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AEHR TEST SYSTEMS (AEHR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY2024 revenue was $16.6M; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.81, driven by a $20.8M tax benefit from releasing the full income tax valuation allowance; GAAP gross margin was 50.9% .
- Mix skewed to consumables: WaferPak revenues were $12.4M and accounted for 75% of total revenue; bookings were $4.0M; backlog was $7.3M with “effective backlog” of $20.8M including early Q1 FY2025 orders .
- FY2025 guidance: total revenue of at least $70M and net profit before taxes of at least 10% of revenue; company changed fiscal calendar to a 4-4-5 year ending the Friday closest to May 31 and expects to incur income tax expense beginning Q1 FY2025 .
- Strategic catalysts: $12.7M WaferPak orders from a SiC customer for EV devices, acquisition of Incal Technology to address ultra-high-power AI processor burn-in, and an AI accelerator wafer-level burn-in evaluation targeted for production this fiscal year .
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable via tool; management stated results “surpassed analyst consensus,” but we cannot verify magnitudes today .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- WaferPak consumables strength: WaferPak revenues rose to $12.4M in Q4, 75% of total, highlighting recurring revenue from design activity and installed base .
- Strategic expansion: Announced $12.7M WaferPak orders for EV SiC production; closed/announced Incal acquisition to expand into packaged-part ultra-high-power burn-in for AI/GPU/network processors; and initiated AI accelerator wafer-level burn-in evaluation using high-power FOX-XP .
- Management tone and outlook: “Our full-year revenue and net income results exceeded our previously provided guidance and surpassed analyst consensus” and “we believe we have significant opportunities for growth in fiscal 2025 and beyond” .
What Went Wrong
- YoY decline and soft bookings: Q4 revenue fell 25% YoY to $16.6M amid EV demand slowdown and customer pushouts; bookings were only $4.0M in the quarter .
- Margin pressure vs prior year: GAAP gross margin was 50.9%, down from 51.5% in Q4 last year, reflecting lower revenue and overhead absorption; operating income fell vs prior year .
- Visibility and mix: Full-year bookings dropped to $49M vs $78.3M prior year; mix shifted away from systems to consumables due to delayed capacity ramps, and FY2025 includes higher OpEx and commissions that can weigh on near-term margins .
Financial Results
Segment/Revenue Mix
KPIs
Non-GAAP Adjustments (Q4 2024)
- Added back: Stock-based compensation $0.775M and acquisition-related costs $0.107M; Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.84 vs GAAP $0.81 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We received $12.7 million in orders…for FOX WaferPak full wafer Contactors to support production of silicon carbide…for electric vehicles” and “we have secured a commitment [from an AI accelerator] to evaluate our FOX solution…we expect they will utilize our new high-power FOX-XP systems for production…starting this fiscal year” .
- CEO on Incal: Incal’s Sonoma high-power platform targets AI/GPU/network processors; combined portfolio positions Aehr to capture a meaningful share of >$100M annual reliability/burn-in market for AI processors .
- CFO: “For the fiscal year ending on May 30, 2025, we expect total revenue of at least $70 million…[and] net profit before taxes of at least 10% of revenue,” and “we changed the company’s fiscal year-end to a [4-4-5] fiscal calendar…this change is expected to improve comparability” .
- CFO: WaferPak revenues were $12.4M (75% of Q4 total); gross margin 50.9% vs 51.5% prior year; bookings $13.5M in first six weeks of Q1 FY2025 taking effective backlog to $20.8M .
Q&A Highlights
- Incal contribution: Incal did ~$12M LTM; FY2025 guide takes a cautious stance; run rate could be ~$1M/month post-close, subject to customer visits and integration .
- China pipeline: Engaged with multiple Chinese SiC players; well over a dozen qualified prospects, aiming to add “one or more” China customers within ~18 months .
- AI accelerator clarity: Not Nvidia; customer is revenue-generating; wafer-level burn-in requires novel high-current delivery and thermal removal (up to ~3,000+ amps per wafer depending on device) .
- OpEx and margins: Near-term OpEx higher due to R&D, legal, commissions, sales/finance (SOX); leveraging infrastructure to regain 20%+ operating margins as revenue scales back toward $100M run-rate .
- Mix and visibility: FY2024 bookings fell vs prior year amid EV softness; consumables revenue offsets delayed systems; expectation to add diversified 10%+ customers in HDD, AI, GaN alongside SiC .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue data were unavailable via the tool at this time; we cannot quantify beats/misses versus SPGI consensus in this report. Management stated full-year results “surpassed analyst consensus,” but we do not have independent SPGI data points today to validate magnitudes .
- Implication: In absence of SPGI consensus, focus remains on company-reported trajectories (consumables strength, diversification, FY2025 floor guide) and qualitative catalysts that could drive estimate revisions in diversified markets (AI, photonics, GaN, HDD) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Consumables are a resilient bridge: WaferPak revenues at 75% of Q4 total underpin cash generation while systems are pushed out; bookings and effective backlog entering Q1 FY2025 support near-term visibility .
- FY2025 floor and margin construct: At least $70M revenue with ≥10% pre-tax margin provides a conservative baseline while diversification (AI/HDD/GaN/SiC China) rolls in .
- AI is moving from narrative to execution: High-power wafer-level FOX-XP and Incal’s packaged-part platforms position Aehr across the AI reliability stack; a committed accelerator evaluation targets production this fiscal year .
- Photonics optionality: High-power FOX-XP shipped for silicon photonics; optical I/O ramps tied to leading processor vendors’ roadmaps, creating medium-term upside .
- China engagement increases TAM: Multiple Chinese SiC suppliers engaged with potential customer adds within ~18 months; expanded support/IP protection strategies are in motion .
- Tax/Calendar changes: Expect income tax expense starting FY2025 and a 4-4-5 fiscal calendar, improving comparability; consider tax headwind vs prior periods with valuation allowance release .
- Watch bookings/system mix: Systems normalization (alongside consumables) would be the clearest signal of capacity ramps resuming in EV/SiC and of diversified contributions from HDD, AI, and GaN .